Model: ReichLab - Kernel Density Estimation API

    Name: Kernel Density Estimation
    Abbreviation: (No abbreviation)
    Owner: nick
    Project: CDC Flu challenge
    Team name: ReichLab
    Description: Team name: ReichLab.
    Team members: Evan L. Ray, Nicholas G. Reich.
    Data source(s): ilinet.
    Methods: This model uses kernel density estimation to estimate a distribution for each seasonal target and a generalized additive model (GAM) with a cyclical seasonal spline to estimate the x-week ahead incidence targets. Both models are based on observed values of that target in previous seasons within the region of interest. We used Gaussian kernels and the default KDE settings from the density function in the stats package for R to estimate the bandwidth parameter for each KDE fit. For the peak incidence target, we fit to log-transformed observations of historical peak incidence. For the onset week prediction target, we estimated the probability of no onset as the proportion of region-seasons in all regions in the training phase where no week in the season met the criteria for being a season onset. We use the mccv R package to fit the GAMs. All code used in estimation and prediction is available at https://github.com/reichlab/2017-2018-cdc-flu-contest
    Home: https://github.com/FluSightNetwork/cdc-flusight-ensemble/tree/master/model-forecasts/component-models/ReichLab_kde
    Auxiliary data: (No auxiliary data)

    Forecasts (225)

    Time zero Data Filename Upload Date
    2010-10-24 20101024-ReichLab_kde-20101108.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:30:19
    2010-10-31 20101031-ReichLab_kde-20101115.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:30:20
    2010-11-07 20101107-ReichLab_kde-20101122.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:30:21
    2010-11-14 20101114-ReichLab_kde-20101129.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:30:22
    2010-11-21 20101121-ReichLab_kde-20101206.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:30:23
    2010-11-28 20101128-ReichLab_kde-20101213.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:30:24
    2010-12-05 20101205-ReichLab_kde-20101220.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:30:25
    2010-12-12 20101212-ReichLab_kde-20101227.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:30:26
    2010-12-19 20101219-ReichLab_kde-20110103.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:30:27
    2010-12-26 20101226-ReichLab_kde-20110110.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:30:28
    2011-01-02 20110102-ReichLab_kde-20110117.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:30:29
    2011-01-09 20110109-ReichLab_kde-20110124.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:30:30
    2011-01-16 20110116-ReichLab_kde-20110131.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:30:30
    2011-01-23 20110123-ReichLab_kde-20110207.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:30:31
    2011-01-30 20110130-ReichLab_kde-20110214.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:30:32
    2011-02-06 20110206-ReichLab_kde-20110221.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:30:33
    2011-02-13 20110213-ReichLab_kde-20110228.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:30:34
    2011-02-20 20110220-ReichLab_kde-20110307.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:30:35
    2011-02-27 20110227-ReichLab_kde-20110314.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:30:36
    2011-03-06 20110306-ReichLab_kde-20110321.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:30:37
    2011-03-13 20110313-ReichLab_kde-20110328.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:30:38
    2011-03-20 20110320-ReichLab_kde-20110404.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:30:39
    2011-03-27 20110327-ReichLab_kde-20110411.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:30:40
    2011-04-03 20110403-ReichLab_kde-20110418.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:30:41
    2011-04-10 20110410-ReichLab_kde-20110425.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:30:42
    2011-04-17 20110417-ReichLab_kde-20110502.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:30:43
    2011-04-24 20110424-ReichLab_kde-20110509.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:30:44
    2011-05-01 20110501-ReichLab_kde-20110516.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:30:45
    2011-10-23 20111023-ReichLab_kde-20111107.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:30:47
    2011-10-30 20111030-ReichLab_kde-20111114.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:30:47
    2011-11-06 20111106-ReichLab_kde-20111121.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:30:48
    2011-11-13 20111113-ReichLab_kde-20111128.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:30:49
    2011-11-20 20111120-ReichLab_kde-20111205.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:30:50
    2011-11-27 20111127-ReichLab_kde-20111212.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:30:51
    2011-12-04 20111204-ReichLab_kde-20111219.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:30:52
    2011-12-11 20111211-ReichLab_kde-20111226.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:30:53
    2011-12-18 20111218-ReichLab_kde-20120102.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:30:54
    2011-12-25 20111225-ReichLab_kde-20120109.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:30:55
    2012-01-01 20120101-ReichLab_kde-20120116.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:30:56
    2012-01-08 20120108-ReichLab_kde-20120123.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:30:57
    2012-01-15 20120115-ReichLab_kde-20120130.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:30:58
    2012-01-22 20120122-ReichLab_kde-20120206.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:30:59
    2012-01-29 20120129-ReichLab_kde-20120213.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:31:00
    2012-02-05 20120205-ReichLab_kde-20120220.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:31:01
    2012-02-12 20120212-ReichLab_kde-20120227.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:31:02
    2012-02-19 20120219-ReichLab_kde-20120305.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:31:03
    2012-02-26 20120226-ReichLab_kde-20120312.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:31:04
    2012-03-04 20120304-ReichLab_kde-20120319.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:31:05
    2012-03-11 20120311-ReichLab_kde-20120326.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:31:06
    2012-03-18 20120318-ReichLab_kde-20120402.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:31:07
    2012-03-25 20120325-ReichLab_kde-20120409.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:31:08
    2012-04-01 20120401-ReichLab_kde-20120416.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:31:09
    2012-04-08 20120408-ReichLab_kde-20120423.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:31:10
    2012-04-15 20120415-ReichLab_kde-20120430.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:31:11
    2012-04-22 20120422-ReichLab_kde-20120507.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:31:12
    2012-04-29 20120429-ReichLab_kde-20120514.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:31:13
    2012-10-21 20121021-ReichLab_kde-20121105.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:31:14
    2012-10-28 20121028-ReichLab_kde-20121112.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:31:14
    2012-11-04 20121104-ReichLab_kde-20121119.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:31:15
    2012-11-11 20121111-ReichLab_kde-20121126.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:31:16
    2012-11-18 20121118-ReichLab_kde-20121203.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:31:17
    2012-11-25 20121125-ReichLab_kde-20121210.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:31:18
    2012-12-02 20121202-ReichLab_kde-20121217.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:31:19
    2012-12-09 20121209-ReichLab_kde-20121224.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:31:20
    2012-12-16 20121216-ReichLab_kde-20121231.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:31:21
    2012-12-23 20121223-ReichLab_kde-20130107.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:31:22
    2012-12-30 20121230-ReichLab_kde-20130114.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:31:23
    2013-01-06 20130106-ReichLab_kde-20130121.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:31:24
    2013-01-13 20130113-ReichLab_kde-20130128.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:31:25
    2013-01-20 20130120-ReichLab_kde-20130204.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:31:26
    2013-01-27 20130127-ReichLab_kde-20130211.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:31:27
    2013-02-03 20130203-ReichLab_kde-20130218.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:31:28
    2013-02-10 20130210-ReichLab_kde-20130225.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:31:30
    2013-02-17 20130217-ReichLab_kde-20130304.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:31:31
    2013-02-24 20130224-ReichLab_kde-20130311.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:31:32
    2013-03-03 20130303-ReichLab_kde-20130318.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:31:32
    2013-03-10 20130310-ReichLab_kde-20130325.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:31:33
    2013-03-17 20130317-ReichLab_kde-20130401.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:31:34
    2013-03-24 20130324-ReichLab_kde-20130408.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:31:35
    2013-03-31 20130331-ReichLab_kde-20130415.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:31:36
    2013-04-07 20130407-ReichLab_kde-20130422.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:31:37
    2013-04-14 20130414-ReichLab_kde-20130429.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:31:38
    2013-04-21 20130421-ReichLab_kde-20130506.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:31:39
    2013-04-28 20130428-ReichLab_kde-20130513.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:31:40
    2013-10-20 20131020-ReichLab_kde-20131104.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:31:41
    2013-10-27 20131027-ReichLab_kde-20131111.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:31:42
    2013-11-03 20131103-ReichLab_kde-20131118.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:31:43
    2013-11-10 20131110-ReichLab_kde-20131125.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:31:44
    2013-11-17 20131117-ReichLab_kde-20131202.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:31:45
    2013-11-24 20131124-ReichLab_kde-20131209.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:31:46
    2013-12-01 20131201-ReichLab_kde-20131216.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:31:47
    2013-12-08 20131208-ReichLab_kde-20131223.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:31:48
    2013-12-15 20131215-ReichLab_kde-20131230.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:31:49
    2013-12-22 20131222-ReichLab_kde-20140106.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:31:50
    2013-12-29 20131229-ReichLab_kde-20140113.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:31:51
    2014-01-05 20140105-ReichLab_kde-20140120.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:31:52
    2014-01-12 20140112-ReichLab_kde-20140127.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:31:53
    2014-01-19 20140119-ReichLab_kde-20140203.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:31:54
    2014-01-26 20140126-ReichLab_kde-20140210.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:31:56
    2014-02-02 20140202-ReichLab_kde-20140217.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:31:57
    2014-02-09 20140209-ReichLab_kde-20140224.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:31:57
    2014-02-16 20140216-ReichLab_kde-20140303.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:31:58
    2014-02-23 20140223-ReichLab_kde-20140310.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:31:59
    2014-03-02 20140302-ReichLab_kde-20140317.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:32:00
    2014-03-09 20140309-ReichLab_kde-20140324.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:32:01
    2014-03-16 20140316-ReichLab_kde-20140331.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:32:02
    2014-03-23 20140323-ReichLab_kde-20140407.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:32:03
    2014-03-30 20140330-ReichLab_kde-20140414.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:32:04
    2014-04-06 20140406-ReichLab_kde-20140421.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:32:05
    2014-04-13 20140413-ReichLab_kde-20140428.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:32:06
    2014-04-20 20140420-ReichLab_kde-20140505.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:32:07
    2014-04-27 20140427-ReichLab_kde-20140512.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:32:08
    2014-10-19 20141019-ReichLab_kde-20141103.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:32:09
    2014-10-26 20141026-ReichLab_kde-20141110.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:32:10
    2014-11-02 20141102-ReichLab_kde-20141117.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:32:11
    2014-11-09 20141109-ReichLab_kde-20141124.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:32:12
    2014-11-16 20141116-ReichLab_kde-20141201.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:32:13
    2014-11-23 20141123-ReichLab_kde-20141208.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:32:14
    2014-11-30 20141130-ReichLab_kde-20141215.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:32:15
    2014-12-07 20141207-ReichLab_kde-20141222.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:32:16
    2014-12-14 20141214-ReichLab_kde-20141229.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:32:17
    2014-12-21 20141221-ReichLab_kde-20150105.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:32:18
    2014-12-28 20141228-ReichLab_kde-20150112.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:32:19
    2015-01-04 20150104-ReichLab_kde-20150119.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:32:20
    2015-01-11 20150111-ReichLab_kde-20150126.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:32:21
    2015-01-18 20150118-ReichLab_kde-20150202.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:32:22
    2015-01-25 20150125-ReichLab_kde-20150209.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:32:23
    2015-02-01 20150201-ReichLab_kde-20150216.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:32:24
    2015-02-08 20150208-ReichLab_kde-20150223.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:32:25
    2015-02-15 20150215-ReichLab_kde-20150302.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:32:26
    2015-02-22 20150222-ReichLab_kde-20150309.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:32:27
    2015-03-01 20150301-ReichLab_kde-20150316.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:32:28
    2015-03-08 20150308-ReichLab_kde-20150323.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:32:29
    2015-03-15 20150315-ReichLab_kde-20150330.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:32:30
    2015-03-22 20150322-ReichLab_kde-20150406.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:32:31
    2015-03-29 20150329-ReichLab_kde-20150413.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:32:32
    2015-04-05 20150405-ReichLab_kde-20150420.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:32:33
    2015-04-12 20150412-ReichLab_kde-20150427.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:32:34
    2015-04-19 20150419-ReichLab_kde-20150504.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:32:35
    2015-04-26 20150426-ReichLab_kde-20150511.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:32:36
    2015-05-03 20150503-ReichLab_kde-20150518.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:32:37
    2015-10-25 20151025-ReichLab_kde-20151109.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:32:38
    2015-11-01 20151101-ReichLab_kde-20151116.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:32:39
    2015-11-08 20151108-ReichLab_kde-20151123.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:32:40
    2015-11-15 20151115-ReichLab_kde-20151130.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:32:41
    2015-11-22 20151122-ReichLab_kde-20151207.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:32:42
    2015-11-29 20151129-ReichLab_kde-20151214.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:32:43
    2015-12-06 20151206-ReichLab_kde-20151221.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:32:44
    2015-12-13 20151213-ReichLab_kde-20151228.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:32:45
    2015-12-20 20151220-ReichLab_kde-20160104.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:32:46
    2015-12-27 20151227-ReichLab_kde-20160111.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:32:47
    2016-01-03 20160103-ReichLab_kde-20160118.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:32:48
    2016-01-10 20160110-ReichLab_kde-20160125.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:32:49
    2016-01-17 20160117-ReichLab_kde-20160201.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:32:50
    2016-01-24 20160124-ReichLab_kde-20160208.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:32:51
    2016-01-31 20160131-ReichLab_kde-20160215.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:32:52
    2016-02-07 20160207-ReichLab_kde-20160222.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:32:53
    2016-02-14 20160214-ReichLab_kde-20160229.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:32:54
    2016-02-21 20160221-ReichLab_kde-20160307.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:32:55
    2016-02-28 20160228-ReichLab_kde-20160314.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:32:56
    2016-03-06 20160306-ReichLab_kde-20160321.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:32:57
    2016-03-13 20160313-ReichLab_kde-20160328.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:32:58
    2016-03-20 20160320-ReichLab_kde-20160404.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:32:59
    2016-03-27 20160327-ReichLab_kde-20160411.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:33:00
    2016-04-03 20160403-ReichLab_kde-20160418.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:33:02
    2016-04-10 20160410-ReichLab_kde-20160425.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:33:03
    2016-04-17 20160417-ReichLab_kde-20160502.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:33:04
    2016-04-24 20160424-ReichLab_kde-20160509.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:33:05
    2016-05-01 20160501-ReichLab_kde-20160516.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:33:06
    2016-10-23 20161023-ReichLab_kde-20161107.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:33:07
    2016-10-30 20161030-ReichLab_kde-20161114.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:33:08
    2016-11-06 20161106-ReichLab_kde-20161121.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:33:09
    2016-11-13 20161113-ReichLab_kde-20161128.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:33:10
    2016-11-20 20161120-ReichLab_kde-20161205.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:33:11
    2016-11-27 20161127-ReichLab_kde-20161212.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:33:12
    2016-12-04 20161204-ReichLab_kde-20161219.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:33:14
    2016-12-11 20161211-ReichLab_kde-20161226.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:33:15
    2016-12-18 20161218-ReichLab_kde-20170102.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:33:16
    2016-12-25 20161225-ReichLab_kde-20170109.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:33:17
    2017-01-01 20170101-ReichLab_kde-20170116.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:33:18
    2017-01-08 20170108-ReichLab_kde-20170123.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:33:19
    2017-01-15 20170115-ReichLab_kde-20170130.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:33:20
    2017-01-22 20170122-ReichLab_kde-20170206.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:33:21
    2017-01-29 20170129-ReichLab_kde-20170213.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:33:22
    2017-02-05 20170205-ReichLab_kde-20170220.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:33:23
    2017-02-12 20170212-ReichLab_kde-20170227.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:33:24
    2017-02-19 20170219-ReichLab_kde-20170306.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:33:25
    2017-02-26 20170226-ReichLab_kde-20170313.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:33:26
    2017-03-05 20170305-ReichLab_kde-20170320.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:33:27
    2017-03-12 20170312-ReichLab_kde-20170327.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:33:28
    2017-03-19 20170319-ReichLab_kde-20170403.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:33:29
    2017-03-26 20170326-ReichLab_kde-20170410.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:33:31
    2017-04-02 20170402-ReichLab_kde-20170417.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:33:32
    2017-04-09 20170409-ReichLab_kde-20170424.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:33:33
    2017-04-16 20170416-ReichLab_kde-20170501.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:33:34
    2017-04-23 20170423-ReichLab_kde-20170508.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:33:35
    2017-04-30 20170430-ReichLab_kde-20170515.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:33:36
    2017-10-22 20171022-ReichLab_kde-20171106.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:33:37
    2017-10-29 20171029-ReichLab_kde-20171113.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:33:38
    2017-11-05 20171105-ReichLab_kde-20171120.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:33:39
    2017-11-12 20171112-ReichLab_kde-20171127.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:33:40
    2017-11-19 20171119-ReichLab_kde-20171204.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:33:41
    2017-11-26 20171126-ReichLab_kde-20171211.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:33:42
    2017-12-03 20171203-ReichLab_kde-20171218.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:33:43
    2017-12-10 20171210-ReichLab_kde-20171225.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:33:44
    2017-12-17 20171217-ReichLab_kde-20180101.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:33:45
    2017-12-24 20171224-ReichLab_kde-20180108.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:33:46
    2017-12-31 20171231-ReichLab_kde-20180115.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:33:47
    2018-01-07 20180107-ReichLab_kde-20180122.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:33:48
    2018-01-14 20180114-ReichLab_kde-20180129.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:33:49
    2018-01-21 20180121-ReichLab_kde-20180205.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:33:51
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