Model: Protea - Springbok (Dynamic Harmonic Model with ARIMA errors) API

    Name: Springbok (Dynamic Harmonic Model with ARIMA errors)
    Abbreviation: (No abbreviation)
    Owner: nick
    Project: CDC Flu challenge
    Team name: Protea
    Description: Team name: Protea.
    Team members: Craig J. McGowan (contact), Alysse J. Kowalski.
    Data source(s): ilinet, google trends.
    Methods: A dynamic harmonic regression model is fit separately for each region in sequential steps, with Fourier terms to capture seasonality and multiple possible covariates. At each sequential step, cross-validated models are fit using each of the seasons from 2010/2011 through 2017/2018 and scored using CDC scoring rules. First, either a log or Box Cox transformation (from the BoxCox.lambda function in the forecast package for R) is selected for each region. Second, the number of Fourier terms (ranging from 1 to 12) is selected. The non-seasonal ARIMA structure of the error terms is selected third, and potential covariates are tested for inclusion last. Covariates include influenza virus subtype cumulative percentage, national Google Trends data, regional Google Trends data (using the most populous state in a given HHS region), and previously observed ILINet backfill, along with combinations of those covariates. Final CV model scores were examined and the top performing model structure was chosen for each location. Forecasts are simulated from iterating one-step-ahead preditions for the remainder of the season, and the occurence of seasonal targets is calculated from these predictions. Predicted probabilities are calculated from the observed values across multiple simulations. For making prospective predictions, models were fit using only data from prior seasons, and forecasts were made using data that would have been available at the time of the forecast. In the case of covariates, predicted values of the covariates based on prior data were used to generate forecasts. For Google Trends data, no information on backfill is available and the data are assumed to be free of backfill. For influenza subtypes, no information on backfill is available, so we use cumulative percentages of each influenza subtype up to a given week in the season, which is less susceptible to backfill effects than weekly measures. All code used in estimation and prediction is available at https://github.com/craigjmcgowan/FluForecast
    Home: https://github.com/FluSightNetwork/cdc-flusight-ensemble/tree/master/model-forecasts/component-models/Protea_Springbok
    Auxiliary data: (No auxiliary data)

    Forecasts (225)

    Time zero Data Filename Upload Date
    2010-10-24 20101024-Protea_Springbok-20101108.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:24
    2010-10-31 20101031-Protea_Springbok-20101115.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:25
    2010-11-07 20101107-Protea_Springbok-20101122.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:25
    2010-11-14 20101114-Protea_Springbok-20101129.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:26
    2010-11-21 20101121-Protea_Springbok-20101206.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:26
    2010-11-28 20101128-Protea_Springbok-20101213.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:27
    2010-12-05 20101205-Protea_Springbok-20101220.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:27
    2010-12-12 20101212-Protea_Springbok-20101227.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:28
    2010-12-19 20101219-Protea_Springbok-20110103.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:28
    2010-12-26 20101226-Protea_Springbok-20110110.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:29
    2011-01-02 20110102-Protea_Springbok-20110117.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:29
    2011-01-09 20110109-Protea_Springbok-20110124.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:30
    2011-01-16 20110116-Protea_Springbok-20110131.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:30
    2011-01-23 20110123-Protea_Springbok-20110207.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:31
    2011-01-30 20110130-Protea_Springbok-20110214.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:31
    2011-02-06 20110206-Protea_Springbok-20110221.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:32
    2011-02-13 20110213-Protea_Springbok-20110228.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:32
    2011-02-20 20110220-Protea_Springbok-20110307.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:33
    2011-02-27 20110227-Protea_Springbok-20110314.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:33
    2011-03-06 20110306-Protea_Springbok-20110321.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:34
    2011-03-13 20110313-Protea_Springbok-20110328.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:34
    2011-03-20 20110320-Protea_Springbok-20110404.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:35
    2011-03-27 20110327-Protea_Springbok-20110411.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:35
    2011-04-03 20110403-Protea_Springbok-20110418.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:35
    2011-04-10 20110410-Protea_Springbok-20110425.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:36
    2011-04-17 20110417-Protea_Springbok-20110502.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:36
    2011-04-24 20110424-Protea_Springbok-20110509.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:36
    2011-05-01 20110501-Protea_Springbok-20110516.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:37
    2011-10-23 20111023-Protea_Springbok-20111107.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:37
    2011-10-30 20111030-Protea_Springbok-20111114.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:37
    2011-11-06 20111106-Protea_Springbok-20111121.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:38
    2011-11-13 20111113-Protea_Springbok-20111128.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:38
    2011-11-20 20111120-Protea_Springbok-20111205.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:39
    2011-11-27 20111127-Protea_Springbok-20111212.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:39
    2011-12-04 20111204-Protea_Springbok-20111219.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:40
    2011-12-11 20111211-Protea_Springbok-20111226.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:40
    2011-12-18 20111218-Protea_Springbok-20120102.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:41
    2011-12-25 20111225-Protea_Springbok-20120109.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:41
    2012-01-01 20120101-Protea_Springbok-20120116.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:42
    2012-01-08 20120108-Protea_Springbok-20120123.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:42
    2012-01-15 20120115-Protea_Springbok-20120130.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:43
    2012-01-22 20120122-Protea_Springbok-20120206.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:43
    2012-01-29 20120129-Protea_Springbok-20120213.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:44
    2012-02-05 20120205-Protea_Springbok-20120220.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:44
    2012-02-12 20120212-Protea_Springbok-20120227.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:45
    2012-02-19 20120219-Protea_Springbok-20120305.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:45
    2012-02-26 20120226-Protea_Springbok-20120312.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:46
    2012-03-04 20120304-Protea_Springbok-20120319.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:46
    2012-03-11 20120311-Protea_Springbok-20120326.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:46
    2012-03-18 20120318-Protea_Springbok-20120402.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:47
    2012-03-25 20120325-Protea_Springbok-20120409.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:47
    2012-04-01 20120401-Protea_Springbok-20120416.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:47
    2012-04-08 20120408-Protea_Springbok-20120423.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:48
    2012-04-15 20120415-Protea_Springbok-20120430.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:48
    2012-04-22 20120422-Protea_Springbok-20120507.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:48
    2012-04-29 20120429-Protea_Springbok-20120514.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:49
    2012-10-21 20121021-Protea_Springbok-20121105.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:49
    2012-10-28 20121028-Protea_Springbok-20121112.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:50
    2012-11-04 20121104-Protea_Springbok-20121119.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:50
    2012-11-11 20121111-Protea_Springbok-20121126.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:51
    2012-11-18 20121118-Protea_Springbok-20121203.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:51
    2012-11-25 20121125-Protea_Springbok-20121210.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:52
    2012-12-02 20121202-Protea_Springbok-20121217.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:52
    2012-12-09 20121209-Protea_Springbok-20121224.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:53
    2012-12-16 20121216-Protea_Springbok-20121231.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:53
    2012-12-23 20121223-Protea_Springbok-20130107.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:54
    2012-12-30 20121230-Protea_Springbok-20130114.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:55
    2013-01-06 20130106-Protea_Springbok-20130121.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:55
    2013-01-13 20130113-Protea_Springbok-20130128.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:56
    2013-01-20 20130120-Protea_Springbok-20130204.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:56
    2013-01-27 20130127-Protea_Springbok-20130211.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:57
    2013-02-03 20130203-Protea_Springbok-20130218.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:58
    2013-02-10 20130210-Protea_Springbok-20130225.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:58
    2013-02-17 20130217-Protea_Springbok-20130304.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:59
    2013-02-24 20130224-Protea_Springbok-20130311.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:59
    2013-03-03 20130303-Protea_Springbok-20130318.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:59
    2013-03-10 20130310-Protea_Springbok-20130325.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:00
    2013-03-17 20130317-Protea_Springbok-20130401.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:00
    2013-03-24 20130324-Protea_Springbok-20130408.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:00
    2013-03-31 20130331-Protea_Springbok-20130415.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:01
    2013-04-07 20130407-Protea_Springbok-20130422.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:01
    2013-04-14 20130414-Protea_Springbok-20130429.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:01
    2013-04-21 20130421-Protea_Springbok-20130506.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:02
    2013-04-28 20130428-Protea_Springbok-20130513.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:02
    2013-10-20 20131020-Protea_Springbok-20131104.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:02
    2013-10-27 20131027-Protea_Springbok-20131111.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:03
    2013-11-03 20131103-Protea_Springbok-20131118.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:03
    2013-11-10 20131110-Protea_Springbok-20131125.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:04
    2013-11-17 20131117-Protea_Springbok-20131202.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:04
    2013-11-24 20131124-Protea_Springbok-20131209.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:05
    2013-12-01 20131201-Protea_Springbok-20131216.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:05
    2013-12-08 20131208-Protea_Springbok-20131223.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:06
    2013-12-15 20131215-Protea_Springbok-20131230.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:06
    2013-12-22 20131222-Protea_Springbok-20140106.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:07
    2013-12-29 20131229-Protea_Springbok-20140113.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:07
    2014-01-05 20140105-Protea_Springbok-20140120.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:08
    2014-01-12 20140112-Protea_Springbok-20140127.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:08
    2014-01-19 20140119-Protea_Springbok-20140203.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:09
    2014-01-26 20140126-Protea_Springbok-20140210.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:09
    2014-02-02 20140202-Protea_Springbok-20140217.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:10
    2014-02-09 20140209-Protea_Springbok-20140224.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:10
    2014-02-16 20140216-Protea_Springbok-20140303.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:11
    2014-02-23 20140223-Protea_Springbok-20140310.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:11
    2014-03-02 20140302-Protea_Springbok-20140317.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:11
    2014-03-09 20140309-Protea_Springbok-20140324.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:12
    2014-03-16 20140316-Protea_Springbok-20140331.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:12
    2014-03-23 20140323-Protea_Springbok-20140407.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:12
    2014-03-30 20140330-Protea_Springbok-20140414.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:13
    2014-04-06 20140406-Protea_Springbok-20140421.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:13
    2014-04-13 20140413-Protea_Springbok-20140428.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:13
    2014-04-20 20140420-Protea_Springbok-20140505.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:14
    2014-04-27 20140427-Protea_Springbok-20140512.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:14
    2014-10-19 20141019-Protea_Springbok-20141103.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:14
    2014-10-26 20141026-Protea_Springbok-20141110.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:15
    2014-11-02 20141102-Protea_Springbok-20141117.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:15
    2014-11-09 20141109-Protea_Springbok-20141124.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:16
    2014-11-16 20141116-Protea_Springbok-20141201.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:16
    2014-11-23 20141123-Protea_Springbok-20141208.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:17
    2014-11-30 20141130-Protea_Springbok-20141215.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:17
    2014-12-07 20141207-Protea_Springbok-20141222.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:18
    2014-12-14 20141214-Protea_Springbok-20141229.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:18
    2014-12-21 20141221-Protea_Springbok-20150105.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:19
    2014-12-28 20141228-Protea_Springbok-20150112.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:20
    2015-01-04 20150104-Protea_Springbok-20150119.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:20
    2015-01-11 20150111-Protea_Springbok-20150126.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:21
    2015-01-18 20150118-Protea_Springbok-20150202.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:21
    2015-01-25 20150125-Protea_Springbok-20150209.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:22
    2015-02-01 20150201-Protea_Springbok-20150216.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:22
    2015-02-08 20150208-Protea_Springbok-20150223.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:23
    2015-02-15 20150215-Protea_Springbok-20150302.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:23
    2015-02-22 20150222-Protea_Springbok-20150309.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:24
    2015-03-01 20150301-Protea_Springbok-20150316.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:24
    2015-03-08 20150308-Protea_Springbok-20150323.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:25
    2015-03-15 20150315-Protea_Springbok-20150330.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:25
    2015-03-22 20150322-Protea_Springbok-20150406.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:25
    2015-03-29 20150329-Protea_Springbok-20150413.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:26
    2015-04-05 20150405-Protea_Springbok-20150420.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:26
    2015-04-12 20150412-Protea_Springbok-20150427.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:26
    2015-04-19 20150419-Protea_Springbok-20150504.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:27
    2015-04-26 20150426-Protea_Springbok-20150511.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:27
    2015-05-03 20150503-Protea_Springbok-20150518.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:27
    2015-10-25 20151025-Protea_Springbok-20151109.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:28
    2015-11-01 20151101-Protea_Springbok-20151116.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:28
    2015-11-08 20151108-Protea_Springbok-20151123.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:29
    2015-11-15 20151115-Protea_Springbok-20151130.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:29
    2015-11-22 20151122-Protea_Springbok-20151207.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:30
    2015-11-29 20151129-Protea_Springbok-20151214.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:30
    2015-12-06 20151206-Protea_Springbok-20151221.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:31
    2015-12-13 20151213-Protea_Springbok-20151228.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:31
    2015-12-20 20151220-Protea_Springbok-20160104.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:32
    2015-12-27 20151227-Protea_Springbok-20160111.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:32
    2016-01-03 20160103-Protea_Springbok-20160118.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:33
    2016-01-10 20160110-Protea_Springbok-20160125.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:33
    2016-01-17 20160117-Protea_Springbok-20160201.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:34
    2016-01-24 20160124-Protea_Springbok-20160208.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:34
    2016-01-31 20160131-Protea_Springbok-20160215.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:34
    2016-02-07 20160207-Protea_Springbok-20160222.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:35
    2016-02-14 20160214-Protea_Springbok-20160229.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:35
    2016-02-21 20160221-Protea_Springbok-20160307.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:36
    2016-02-28 20160228-Protea_Springbok-20160314.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:36
    2016-03-06 20160306-Protea_Springbok-20160321.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:37
    2016-03-13 20160313-Protea_Springbok-20160328.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:37
    2016-03-20 20160320-Protea_Springbok-20160404.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:38
    2016-03-27 20160327-Protea_Springbok-20160411.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:38
    2016-04-03 20160403-Protea_Springbok-20160418.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:38
    2016-04-10 20160410-Protea_Springbok-20160425.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:39
    2016-04-17 20160417-Protea_Springbok-20160502.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:39
    2016-04-24 20160424-Protea_Springbok-20160509.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:39
    2016-05-01 20160501-Protea_Springbok-20160516.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:40
    2016-10-23 20161023-Protea_Springbok-20161107.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:40
    2016-10-30 20161030-Protea_Springbok-20161114.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:41
    2016-11-06 20161106-Protea_Springbok-20161121.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:41
    2016-11-13 20161113-Protea_Springbok-20161128.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:42
    2016-11-20 20161120-Protea_Springbok-20161205.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:42
    2016-11-27 20161127-Protea_Springbok-20161212.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:43
    2016-12-04 20161204-Protea_Springbok-20161219.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:43
    2016-12-11 20161211-Protea_Springbok-20161226.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:44
    2016-12-18 20161218-Protea_Springbok-20170102.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:44
    2016-12-25 20161225-Protea_Springbok-20170109.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:45
    2017-01-01 20170101-Protea_Springbok-20170116.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:45
    2017-01-08 20170108-Protea_Springbok-20170123.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:46
    2017-01-15 20170115-Protea_Springbok-20170130.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:46
    2017-01-22 20170122-Protea_Springbok-20170206.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:47
    2017-01-29 20170129-Protea_Springbok-20170213.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:47
    2017-02-05 20170205-Protea_Springbok-20170220.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:48
    2017-02-12 20170212-Protea_Springbok-20170227.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:48
    2017-02-19 20170219-Protea_Springbok-20170306.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:49
    2017-02-26 20170226-Protea_Springbok-20170313.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:49
    2017-03-05 20170305-Protea_Springbok-20170320.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:50
    2017-03-12 20170312-Protea_Springbok-20170327.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:50
    2017-03-19 20170319-Protea_Springbok-20170403.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:51
    2017-03-26 20170326-Protea_Springbok-20170410.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:51
    2017-04-02 20170402-Protea_Springbok-20170417.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:52
    2017-04-09 20170409-Protea_Springbok-20170424.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:52
    2017-04-16 20170416-Protea_Springbok-20170501.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:52
    2017-04-23 20170423-Protea_Springbok-20170508.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:53
    2017-04-30 20170430-Protea_Springbok-20170515.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:53
    2017-10-22 20171022-Protea_Springbok-20171106.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:53
    2017-10-29 20171029-Protea_Springbok-20171113.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:54
    2017-11-05 20171105-Protea_Springbok-20171120.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:54
    2017-11-12 20171112-Protea_Springbok-20171127.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:55
    2017-11-19 20171119-Protea_Springbok-20171204.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:55
    2017-11-26 20171126-Protea_Springbok-20171211.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:56
    2017-12-03 20171203-Protea_Springbok-20171218.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:57
    2017-12-10 20171210-Protea_Springbok-20171225.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:27:57
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