Model: Protea - Kudu (Subtype weighted historical average model) API

    Name: Kudu (Subtype weighted historical average model)
    Abbreviation: (No abbreviation)
    Owner: nick
    Project: CDC Flu challenge
    Team name: Protea
    Description: Team name: Protea.
    Team members: Craig J. McGowan (contact), Alysse J. Kowalski.
    Data source(s): ilinet, who-nrevss lab data.
    Methods: This model is an influenza subtype-specific historical average model. Separate Gaussian kernel densities for H1 and H3 behavior are calculated from prior ILINet data weighted by the cumulative proportion of viruses from each subtype at a given point in the season. Forecasts are generated by weighting each subtype-specific density by the cumulative observed ratio of H1 and H3 viruses at each week and integrating the predictive density. For prospective forecasts, only ILINet data known at the time of the forecast are used, as retrieved from the CMU-Epidata API. For subtype percentages, the backfilled data are not available, however we use the cumulative percentage of samples of each subtype at a given week of the season rather than the weekly percentage, which is less susceptible to backfill effects as the season goes on. All code used in estimation and prediction is available at https://github.com/craigjmcgowan/FluForecast
    Home: https://github.com/FluSightNetwork/cdc-flusight-ensemble/tree/master/model-forecasts/component-models/Protea_Kudu
    Auxiliary data: (No auxiliary data)

    Forecasts (225)

    Time zero Data Filename Upload Date
    2010-10-24 20101024-Protea_Kudu-20101108.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:22:31
    2010-10-31 20101031-Protea_Kudu-20101115.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:22:32
    2010-11-07 20101107-Protea_Kudu-20101122.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:22:33
    2010-11-14 20101114-Protea_Kudu-20101129.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:22:34
    2010-11-21 20101121-Protea_Kudu-20101206.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:22:35
    2010-11-28 20101128-Protea_Kudu-20101213.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:22:36
    2010-12-05 20101205-Protea_Kudu-20101220.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:22:37
    2010-12-12 20101212-Protea_Kudu-20101227.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:22:38
    2010-12-19 20101219-Protea_Kudu-20110103.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:22:39
    2010-12-26 20101226-Protea_Kudu-20110110.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:22:40
    2011-01-02 20110102-Protea_Kudu-20110117.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:22:41
    2011-01-09 20110109-Protea_Kudu-20110124.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:22:42
    2011-01-16 20110116-Protea_Kudu-20110131.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:22:43
    2011-01-23 20110123-Protea_Kudu-20110207.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:22:44
    2011-01-30 20110130-Protea_Kudu-20110214.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:22:45
    2011-02-06 20110206-Protea_Kudu-20110221.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:22:46
    2011-02-13 20110213-Protea_Kudu-20110228.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:22:47
    2011-02-20 20110220-Protea_Kudu-20110307.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:22:48
    2011-02-27 20110227-Protea_Kudu-20110314.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:22:49
    2011-03-06 20110306-Protea_Kudu-20110321.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:22:51
    2011-03-13 20110313-Protea_Kudu-20110328.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:22:52
    2011-03-20 20110320-Protea_Kudu-20110404.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:22:53
    2011-03-27 20110327-Protea_Kudu-20110411.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:22:54
    2011-04-03 20110403-Protea_Kudu-20110418.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:22:55
    2011-04-10 20110410-Protea_Kudu-20110425.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:22:56
    2011-04-17 20110417-Protea_Kudu-20110502.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:22:57
    2011-04-24 20110424-Protea_Kudu-20110509.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:22:58
    2011-05-01 20110501-Protea_Kudu-20110516.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:23:00
    2011-10-23 20111023-Protea_Kudu-20111107.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:23:01
    2011-10-30 20111030-Protea_Kudu-20111114.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:23:02
    2011-11-06 20111106-Protea_Kudu-20111121.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:23:03
    2011-11-13 20111113-Protea_Kudu-20111128.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:23:04
    2011-11-20 20111120-Protea_Kudu-20111205.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:23:05
    2011-11-27 20111127-Protea_Kudu-20111212.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:23:06
    2011-12-04 20111204-Protea_Kudu-20111219.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:23:07
    2011-12-11 20111211-Protea_Kudu-20111226.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:23:08
    2011-12-18 20111218-Protea_Kudu-20120102.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:23:09
    2011-12-25 20111225-Protea_Kudu-20120109.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:23:10
    2012-01-01 20120101-Protea_Kudu-20120116.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:23:11
    2012-01-08 20120108-Protea_Kudu-20120123.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:23:12
    2012-01-15 20120115-Protea_Kudu-20120130.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:23:13
    2012-01-22 20120122-Protea_Kudu-20120206.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:23:14
    2012-01-29 20120129-Protea_Kudu-20120213.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:23:15
    2012-02-05 20120205-Protea_Kudu-20120220.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:23:16
    2012-02-12 20120212-Protea_Kudu-20120227.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:23:17
    2012-02-19 20120219-Protea_Kudu-20120305.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:23:18
    2012-02-26 20120226-Protea_Kudu-20120312.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:23:19
    2012-03-04 20120304-Protea_Kudu-20120319.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:23:20
    2012-03-11 20120311-Protea_Kudu-20120326.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:23:21
    2012-03-18 20120318-Protea_Kudu-20120402.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:23:22
    2012-03-25 20120325-Protea_Kudu-20120409.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:23:23
    2012-04-01 20120401-Protea_Kudu-20120416.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:23:24
    2012-04-08 20120408-Protea_Kudu-20120423.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:23:25
    2012-04-15 20120415-Protea_Kudu-20120430.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:23:26
    2012-04-22 20120422-Protea_Kudu-20120507.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:23:27
    2012-04-29 20120429-Protea_Kudu-20120514.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:23:27
    2012-10-21 20121021-Protea_Kudu-20121105.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:23:28
    2012-10-28 20121028-Protea_Kudu-20121112.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:23:29
    2012-11-04 20121104-Protea_Kudu-20121119.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:23:30
    2012-11-11 20121111-Protea_Kudu-20121126.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:23:31
    2012-11-18 20121118-Protea_Kudu-20121203.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:23:32
    2012-11-25 20121125-Protea_Kudu-20121210.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:23:33
    2012-12-02 20121202-Protea_Kudu-20121217.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:23:34
    2012-12-09 20121209-Protea_Kudu-20121224.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:23:35
    2012-12-16 20121216-Protea_Kudu-20121231.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:23:36
    2012-12-23 20121223-Protea_Kudu-20130107.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:23:37
    2012-12-30 20121230-Protea_Kudu-20130114.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:23:38
    2013-01-06 20130106-Protea_Kudu-20130121.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:23:39
    2013-01-13 20130113-Protea_Kudu-20130128.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:23:40
    2013-01-20 20130120-Protea_Kudu-20130204.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:23:41
    2013-01-27 20130127-Protea_Kudu-20130211.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:23:42
    2013-02-03 20130203-Protea_Kudu-20130218.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:23:43
    2013-02-10 20130210-Protea_Kudu-20130225.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:23:44
    2013-02-17 20130217-Protea_Kudu-20130304.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:23:45
    2013-02-24 20130224-Protea_Kudu-20130311.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:23:46
    2013-03-03 20130303-Protea_Kudu-20130318.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:23:47
    2013-03-10 20130310-Protea_Kudu-20130325.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:23:48
    2013-03-17 20130317-Protea_Kudu-20130401.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:23:49
    2013-03-24 20130324-Protea_Kudu-20130408.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:23:50
    2013-03-31 20130331-Protea_Kudu-20130415.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:23:51
    2013-04-07 20130407-Protea_Kudu-20130422.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:23:52
    2013-04-14 20130414-Protea_Kudu-20130429.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:23:53
    2013-04-21 20130421-Protea_Kudu-20130506.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:23:54
    2013-04-28 20130428-Protea_Kudu-20130513.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:23:55
    2013-10-20 20131020-Protea_Kudu-20131104.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:23:56
    2013-10-27 20131027-Protea_Kudu-20131111.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:23:57
    2013-11-03 20131103-Protea_Kudu-20131118.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:23:58
    2013-11-10 20131110-Protea_Kudu-20131125.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:23:59
    2013-11-17 20131117-Protea_Kudu-20131202.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:24:00
    2013-11-24 20131124-Protea_Kudu-20131209.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:24:01
    2013-12-01 20131201-Protea_Kudu-20131216.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:24:02
    2013-12-08 20131208-Protea_Kudu-20131223.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:24:03
    2013-12-15 20131215-Protea_Kudu-20131230.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:24:04
    2013-12-22 20131222-Protea_Kudu-20140106.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:24:05
    2013-12-29 20131229-Protea_Kudu-20140113.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:24:06
    2014-01-05 20140105-Protea_Kudu-20140120.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:24:07
    2014-01-12 20140112-Protea_Kudu-20140127.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:24:08
    2014-01-19 20140119-Protea_Kudu-20140203.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:24:09
    2014-01-26 20140126-Protea_Kudu-20140210.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:24:10
    2014-02-02 20140202-Protea_Kudu-20140217.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:24:12
    2014-02-09 20140209-Protea_Kudu-20140224.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:24:13
    2014-02-16 20140216-Protea_Kudu-20140303.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:24:14
    2014-02-23 20140223-Protea_Kudu-20140310.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:24:15
    2014-03-02 20140302-Protea_Kudu-20140317.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:24:16
    2014-03-09 20140309-Protea_Kudu-20140324.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:24:17
    2014-03-16 20140316-Protea_Kudu-20140331.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:24:18
    2014-03-23 20140323-Protea_Kudu-20140407.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:24:20
    2014-03-30 20140330-Protea_Kudu-20140414.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:24:21
    2014-04-06 20140406-Protea_Kudu-20140421.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:24:22
    2014-04-13 20140413-Protea_Kudu-20140428.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:24:23
    2014-04-20 20140420-Protea_Kudu-20140505.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:24:24
    2014-04-27 20140427-Protea_Kudu-20140512.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:24:26
    2014-10-19 20141019-Protea_Kudu-20141103.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:24:27
    2014-10-26 20141026-Protea_Kudu-20141110.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:24:28
    2014-11-02 20141102-Protea_Kudu-20141117.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:24:29
    2014-11-09 20141109-Protea_Kudu-20141124.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:24:30
    2014-11-16 20141116-Protea_Kudu-20141201.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:24:31
    2014-11-23 20141123-Protea_Kudu-20141208.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:24:32
    2014-11-30 20141130-Protea_Kudu-20141215.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:24:33
    2014-12-07 20141207-Protea_Kudu-20141222.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:24:34
    2014-12-14 20141214-Protea_Kudu-20141229.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:24:35
    2014-12-21 20141221-Protea_Kudu-20150105.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:24:36
    2014-12-28 20141228-Protea_Kudu-20150112.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:24:37
    2015-01-04 20150104-Protea_Kudu-20150119.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:24:38
    2015-01-11 20150111-Protea_Kudu-20150126.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:24:40
    2015-01-18 20150118-Protea_Kudu-20150202.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:24:41
    2015-01-25 20150125-Protea_Kudu-20150209.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:24:42
    2015-02-01 20150201-Protea_Kudu-20150216.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:24:43
    2015-02-08 20150208-Protea_Kudu-20150223.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:24:44
    2015-02-15 20150215-Protea_Kudu-20150302.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:24:45
    2015-02-22 20150222-Protea_Kudu-20150309.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:24:46
    2015-03-01 20150301-Protea_Kudu-20150316.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:24:47
    2015-03-08 20150308-Protea_Kudu-20150323.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:24:48
    2015-03-15 20150315-Protea_Kudu-20150330.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:24:49
    2015-03-22 20150322-Protea_Kudu-20150406.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:24:50
    2015-03-29 20150329-Protea_Kudu-20150413.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:24:51
    2015-04-05 20150405-Protea_Kudu-20150420.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:24:52
    2015-04-12 20150412-Protea_Kudu-20150427.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:24:53
    2015-04-19 20150419-Protea_Kudu-20150504.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:24:54
    2015-04-26 20150426-Protea_Kudu-20150511.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:24:55
    2015-05-03 20150503-Protea_Kudu-20150518.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:24:56
    2015-10-25 20151025-Protea_Kudu-20151109.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:24:57
    2015-11-01 20151101-Protea_Kudu-20151116.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:24:58
    2015-11-08 20151108-Protea_Kudu-20151123.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:24:59
    2015-11-15 20151115-Protea_Kudu-20151130.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:25:00
    2015-11-22 20151122-Protea_Kudu-20151207.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:25:01
    2015-11-29 20151129-Protea_Kudu-20151214.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:25:02
    2015-12-06 20151206-Protea_Kudu-20151221.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:25:03
    2015-12-13 20151213-Protea_Kudu-20151228.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:25:04
    2015-12-20 20151220-Protea_Kudu-20160104.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:25:05
    2015-12-27 20151227-Protea_Kudu-20160111.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:25:06
    2016-01-03 20160103-Protea_Kudu-20160118.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:25:07
    2016-01-10 20160110-Protea_Kudu-20160125.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:25:08
    2016-01-17 20160117-Protea_Kudu-20160201.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:25:09
    2016-01-24 20160124-Protea_Kudu-20160208.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:25:10
    2016-01-31 20160131-Protea_Kudu-20160215.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:25:11
    2016-02-07 20160207-Protea_Kudu-20160222.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:25:12
    2016-02-14 20160214-Protea_Kudu-20160229.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:25:13
    2016-02-21 20160221-Protea_Kudu-20160307.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:25:14
    2016-02-28 20160228-Protea_Kudu-20160314.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:25:15
    2016-03-06 20160306-Protea_Kudu-20160321.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:25:16
    2016-03-13 20160313-Protea_Kudu-20160328.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:25:17
    2016-03-20 20160320-Protea_Kudu-20160404.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:25:18
    2016-03-27 20160327-Protea_Kudu-20160411.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:25:19
    2016-04-03 20160403-Protea_Kudu-20160418.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:25:21
    2016-04-10 20160410-Protea_Kudu-20160425.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:25:22
    2016-04-17 20160417-Protea_Kudu-20160502.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:25:23
    2016-04-24 20160424-Protea_Kudu-20160509.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:25:24
    2016-05-01 20160501-Protea_Kudu-20160516.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:25:25
    2016-10-23 20161023-Protea_Kudu-20161107.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:25:26
    2016-10-30 20161030-Protea_Kudu-20161114.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:25:27
    2016-11-06 20161106-Protea_Kudu-20161121.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:25:28
    2016-11-13 20161113-Protea_Kudu-20161128.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:25:29
    2016-11-20 20161120-Protea_Kudu-20161205.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:25:30
    2016-11-27 20161127-Protea_Kudu-20161212.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:25:31
    2016-12-04 20161204-Protea_Kudu-20161219.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:25:32
    2016-12-11 20161211-Protea_Kudu-20161226.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:25:33
    2016-12-18 20161218-Protea_Kudu-20170102.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:25:34
    2016-12-25 20161225-Protea_Kudu-20170109.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:25:35
    2017-01-01 20170101-Protea_Kudu-20170116.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:25:36
    2017-01-08 20170108-Protea_Kudu-20170123.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:25:37
    2017-01-15 20170115-Protea_Kudu-20170130.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:25:38
    2017-01-22 20170122-Protea_Kudu-20170206.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:25:39
    2017-01-29 20170129-Protea_Kudu-20170213.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:25:40
    2017-02-05 20170205-Protea_Kudu-20170220.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:25:41
    2017-02-12 20170212-Protea_Kudu-20170227.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:25:43
    2017-02-19 20170219-Protea_Kudu-20170306.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:25:44
    2017-02-26 20170226-Protea_Kudu-20170313.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:25:45
    2017-03-05 20170305-Protea_Kudu-20170320.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:25:46
    2017-03-12 20170312-Protea_Kudu-20170327.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:25:47
    2017-03-19 20170319-Protea_Kudu-20170403.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:25:48
    2017-03-26 20170326-Protea_Kudu-20170410.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:25:49
    2017-04-02 20170402-Protea_Kudu-20170417.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:25:50
    2017-04-09 20170409-Protea_Kudu-20170424.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:25:51
    2017-04-16 20170416-Protea_Kudu-20170501.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:25:52
    2017-04-23 20170423-Protea_Kudu-20170508.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:25:53
    2017-04-30 20170430-Protea_Kudu-20170515.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:25:54
    2017-10-22 20171022-Protea_Kudu-20171106.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:25:56
    2017-10-29 20171029-Protea_Kudu-20171113.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:25:57
    2017-11-05 20171105-Protea_Kudu-20171120.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:25:58
    2017-11-12 20171112-Protea_Kudu-20171127.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:25:59
    2017-11-19 20171119-Protea_Kudu-20171204.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:00
    2017-11-26 20171126-Protea_Kudu-20171211.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:01
    2017-12-03 20171203-Protea_Kudu-20171218.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:02
    2017-12-10 20171210-Protea_Kudu-20171225.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:03
    2017-12-17 20171217-Protea_Kudu-20180101.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:04
    2017-12-24 20171224-Protea_Kudu-20180108.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:05
    2017-12-31 20171231-Protea_Kudu-20180115.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:06
    2018-01-07 20180107-Protea_Kudu-20180122.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:07
    2018-01-14 20180114-Protea_Kudu-20180129.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:08
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    2018-04-29 20180429-Protea_Kudu-20180514.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:26:23