Model: LANL - Dynamic Bayesian Model with a hierarchical discrepancy + Google-based nowcasts API

    Name: Dynamic Bayesian Model with a hierarchical discrepancy + Google-based nowcasts
    Abbreviation: (No abbreviation)
    Owner: nick
    Project: CDC Flu challenge
    Team name: LANL
    Description: Team name: LANL.
    Team members: Dave Osthus (PI) and Reid Priedhorsky.
    Data source(s): ILI Net, Google Trends.
    Methods: DBMplus (DBM+) is partitioned into two parts: the DBM part and the '+' part. The dynamic Bayesian model (DBM) part is the probabilistic model It combines an SIR model with a flexible discrepancy model in a Bayesian framework. Methodological details can be found here: https://projecteuclid.org/download/pdfview_1/euclid.ba/1533866670. The '+' part refers to Google-based nowcasts. DBM+ uses internet-based nowcasts (1-week-ahead) appended to available ILI data and treats the nowcast exactly as if it were CDC-released ILI data. To our knowledge, Google data does not have backfill issues. Google data were pulled after the forecast dates, but we do not believe that is an issue. Google data is based on a random sample, thus reproducing the pulls exactly is not possible. To produce forecasts, DBM+ requires historical data, ideally from EW 40 of 1997 through the forecast date, sans the H1N1 2008/2009 and 2009/2010 seasons. To our knowledge, the earliest date on which all historical data are available is EW 52 of 2013 through the DELPHI API. For flu seasons 2014/2015, 2015/2016, and 2016/2017, all ILI data used in the forecasts strictly respect the backfill issue (i.e., all ILI data used in the fitting of the DBM was pulled on or before the forecast date). For seasons 2010/2011 through 2013/2014, historical ILI data from 1997, EW 40 through 2008, EW 25 was pulled on 2013, EW 52 (i.e., NOT strictly obeying the backfill issue).
    Home: https://github.com/FluSightNetwork/cdc-flusight-ensemble/tree/master/model-forecasts/component-models/LANL_DBMplus
    Auxiliary data: (No auxiliary data)

    Forecasts (224)

    Time zero Data Filename Upload Date
    2010-10-24 20101024-LANL_DBMplus-20101108.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:14:32
    2010-10-31 20101031-LANL_DBMplus-20101115.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:14:33
    2010-11-07 20101107-LANL_DBMplus-20101122.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:14:34
    2010-11-14 20101114-LANL_DBMplus-20101129.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:14:35
    2010-11-21 20101121-LANL_DBMplus-20101206.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:14:36
    2010-11-28 20101128-LANL_DBMplus-20101213.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:14:37
    2010-12-05 20101205-LANL_DBMplus-20101220.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:14:38
    2010-12-12 20101212-LANL_DBMplus-20101227.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:14:39
    2010-12-19 20101219-LANL_DBMplus-20110103.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:14:40
    2010-12-26 20101226-LANL_DBMplus-20110110.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:14:42
    2011-01-02 20110102-LANL_DBMplus-20110117.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:14:43
    2011-01-09 20110109-LANL_DBMplus-20110124.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:14:44
    2011-01-16 20110116-LANL_DBMplus-20110131.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:14:45
    2011-01-23 20110123-LANL_DBMplus-20110207.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:14:46
    2011-01-30 20110130-LANL_DBMplus-20110214.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:14:47
    2011-02-06 20110206-LANL_DBMplus-20110221.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:14:48
    2011-02-13 20110213-LANL_DBMplus-20110228.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:14:49
    2011-02-20 20110220-LANL_DBMplus-20110307.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:14:50
    2011-02-27 20110227-LANL_DBMplus-20110314.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:14:51
    2011-03-06 20110306-LANL_DBMplus-20110321.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:14:52
    2011-03-13 20110313-LANL_DBMplus-20110328.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:14:53
    2011-03-20 20110320-LANL_DBMplus-20110404.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:14:54
    2011-03-27 20110327-LANL_DBMplus-20110411.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:14:55
    2011-04-03 20110403-LANL_DBMplus-20110418.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:14:56
    2011-04-10 20110410-LANL_DBMplus-20110425.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:14:57
    2011-04-17 20110417-LANL_DBMplus-20110502.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:14:58
    2011-04-24 20110424-LANL_DBMplus-20110509.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:14:59
    2011-05-01 20110501-LANL_DBMplus-20110516.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:15:00
    2011-10-23 20111023-LANL_DBMplus-20111107.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:15:01
    2011-10-30 20111030-LANL_DBMplus-20111114.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:15:02
    2011-11-06 20111106-LANL_DBMplus-20111121.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:15:03
    2011-11-13 20111113-LANL_DBMplus-20111128.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:15:04
    2011-11-20 20111120-LANL_DBMplus-20111205.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:15:06
    2011-11-27 20111127-LANL_DBMplus-20111212.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:15:07
    2011-12-04 20111204-LANL_DBMplus-20111219.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:15:08
    2011-12-11 20111211-LANL_DBMplus-20111226.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:15:09
    2011-12-18 20111218-LANL_DBMplus-20120102.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:15:11
    2011-12-25 20111225-LANL_DBMplus-20120109.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:15:12
    2012-01-01 20120101-LANL_DBMplus-20120116.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:15:13
    2012-01-08 20120108-LANL_DBMplus-20120123.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:15:14
    2012-01-15 20120115-LANL_DBMplus-20120130.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:15:15
    2012-01-22 20120122-LANL_DBMplus-20120206.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:15:16
    2012-01-29 20120129-LANL_DBMplus-20120213.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:15:18
    2012-02-05 20120205-LANL_DBMplus-20120220.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:15:19
    2012-02-12 20120212-LANL_DBMplus-20120227.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:15:20
    2012-02-19 20120219-LANL_DBMplus-20120305.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:15:21
    2012-02-26 20120226-LANL_DBMplus-20120312.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:15:22
    2012-03-04 20120304-LANL_DBMplus-20120319.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:15:23
    2012-03-11 20120311-LANL_DBMplus-20120326.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:15:24
    2012-03-18 20120318-LANL_DBMplus-20120402.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:15:25
    2012-03-25 20120325-LANL_DBMplus-20120409.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:15:26
    2012-04-01 20120401-LANL_DBMplus-20120416.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:15:28
    2012-04-08 20120408-LANL_DBMplus-20120423.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:15:29
    2012-04-15 20120415-LANL_DBMplus-20120430.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:15:30
    2012-04-22 20120422-LANL_DBMplus-20120507.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:15:31
    2012-04-29 20120429-LANL_DBMplus-20120514.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:15:32
    2012-10-21 20121021-LANL_DBMplus-20121105.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:15:34
    2012-10-28 20121028-LANL_DBMplus-20121112.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:15:35
    2012-11-04 20121104-LANL_DBMplus-20121119.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:15:36
    2012-11-11 20121111-LANL_DBMplus-20121126.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:15:37
    2012-11-18 20121118-LANL_DBMplus-20121203.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:15:38
    2012-11-25 20121125-LANL_DBMplus-20121210.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:15:40
    2012-12-02 20121202-LANL_DBMplus-20121217.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:15:41
    2012-12-09 20121209-LANL_DBMplus-20121224.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:15:43
    2012-12-16 20121216-LANL_DBMplus-20121231.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:15:44
    2012-12-23 20121223-LANL_DBMplus-20130107.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:15:45
    2012-12-30 20121230-LANL_DBMplus-20130114.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:15:46
    2013-01-06 20130106-LANL_DBMplus-20130121.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:15:47
    2013-01-13 20130113-LANL_DBMplus-20130128.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:15:49
    2013-01-20 20130120-LANL_DBMplus-20130204.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:15:50
    2013-01-27 20130127-LANL_DBMplus-20130211.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:15:51
    2013-02-03 20130203-LANL_DBMplus-20130218.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:15:52
    2013-02-10 20130210-LANL_DBMplus-20130225.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:15:54
    2013-02-17 20130217-LANL_DBMplus-20130304.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:15:55
    2013-02-24 20130224-LANL_DBMplus-20130311.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:15:56
    2013-03-03 20130303-LANL_DBMplus-20130318.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:15:57
    2013-03-10 20130310-LANL_DBMplus-20130325.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:15:58
    2013-03-17 20130317-LANL_DBMplus-20130401.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:16:00
    2013-03-24 20130324-LANL_DBMplus-20130408.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:16:01
    2013-03-31 20130331-LANL_DBMplus-20130415.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:16:02
    2013-04-07 20130407-LANL_DBMplus-20130422.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:16:03
    2013-04-14 20130414-LANL_DBMplus-20130429.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:16:04
    2013-04-21 20130421-LANL_DBMplus-20130506.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:16:05
    2013-04-28 20130428-LANL_DBMplus-20130513.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:16:07
    2013-10-20 20131020-LANL_DBMplus-20131104.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:16:08
    2013-10-27 20131027-LANL_DBMplus-20131111.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:16:09
    2013-11-03 20131103-LANL_DBMplus-20131118.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:16:10
    2013-11-10 20131110-LANL_DBMplus-20131125.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:16:11
    2013-11-17 20131117-LANL_DBMplus-20131202.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:16:12
    2013-11-24 20131124-LANL_DBMplus-20131209.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:16:13
    2013-12-01 20131201-LANL_DBMplus-20131216.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:16:14
    2013-12-08 20131208-LANL_DBMplus-20131223.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:16:16
    2013-12-15 20131215-LANL_DBMplus-20131230.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:16:17
    2013-12-22 20131222-LANL_DBMplus-20140106.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:16:18
    2013-12-29 20131229-LANL_DBMplus-20140113.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:16:19
    2014-01-05 20140105-LANL_DBMplus-20140120.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:16:20
    2014-01-12 20140112-LANL_DBMplus-20140127.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:16:21
    2014-01-19 20140119-LANL_DBMplus-20140203.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:16:22
    2014-01-26 20140126-LANL_DBMplus-20140210.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:16:23
    2014-02-02 20140202-LANL_DBMplus-20140217.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:16:25
    2014-02-09 20140209-LANL_DBMplus-20140224.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:16:26
    2014-02-16 20140216-LANL_DBMplus-20140303.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:16:27
    2014-02-23 20140223-LANL_DBMplus-20140310.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:16:28
    2014-03-02 20140302-LANL_DBMplus-20140317.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:16:29
    2014-03-09 20140309-LANL_DBMplus-20140324.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:16:30
    2014-03-16 20140316-LANL_DBMplus-20140331.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:16:31
    2014-03-23 20140323-LANL_DBMplus-20140407.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:16:33
    2014-03-30 20140330-LANL_DBMplus-20140414.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:16:34
    2014-04-06 20140406-LANL_DBMplus-20140421.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:16:35
    2014-04-13 20140413-LANL_DBMplus-20140428.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:16:36
    2014-04-20 20140420-LANL_DBMplus-20140505.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:16:37
    2014-04-27 20140427-LANL_DBMplus-20140512.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:16:38
    2014-10-19 20141019-LANL_DBMplus-20141103.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:16:39
    2014-10-26 20141026-LANL_DBMplus-20141110.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:16:41
    2014-11-02 20141102-LANL_DBMplus-20141117.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:16:42
    2014-11-09 20141109-LANL_DBMplus-20141124.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:16:43
    2014-11-16 20141116-LANL_DBMplus-20141201.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:16:44
    2014-11-23 20141123-LANL_DBMplus-20141208.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:16:45
    2014-11-30 20141130-LANL_DBMplus-20141215.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:16:46
    2014-12-07 20141207-LANL_DBMplus-20141222.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:16:47
    2014-12-14 20141214-LANL_DBMplus-20141229.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:16:49
    2014-12-21 20141221-LANL_DBMplus-20150105.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:16:50
    2014-12-28 20141228-LANL_DBMplus-20150112.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:16:51
    2015-01-04 20150104-LANL_DBMplus-20150119.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:16:52
    2015-01-11 20150111-LANL_DBMplus-20150126.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:16:53
    2015-01-18 20150118-LANL_DBMplus-20150202.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:16:55
    2015-01-25 20150125-LANL_DBMplus-20150209.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:16:56
    2015-02-01 20150201-LANL_DBMplus-20150216.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:16:57
    2015-02-08 20150208-LANL_DBMplus-20150223.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:16:58
    2015-02-15 20150215-LANL_DBMplus-20150302.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:16:59
    2015-02-22 20150222-LANL_DBMplus-20150309.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:17:01
    2015-03-01 20150301-LANL_DBMplus-20150316.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:17:02
    2015-03-08 20150308-LANL_DBMplus-20150323.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:17:04
    2015-03-15 20150315-LANL_DBMplus-20150330.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:17:05
    2015-03-22 20150322-LANL_DBMplus-20150406.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:17:06
    2015-03-29 20150329-LANL_DBMplus-20150413.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:17:07
    2015-04-05 20150405-LANL_DBMplus-20150420.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:17:08
    2015-04-12 20150412-LANL_DBMplus-20150427.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:17:09
    2015-04-19 20150419-LANL_DBMplus-20150504.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:17:10
    2015-04-26 20150426-LANL_DBMplus-20150511.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:17:11
    2015-05-03 (No data)
    2015-10-25 20151025-LANL_DBMplus-20151109.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:17:13
    2015-11-01 20151101-LANL_DBMplus-20151116.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:17:14
    2015-11-08 20151108-LANL_DBMplus-20151123.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:17:15
    2015-11-15 20151115-LANL_DBMplus-20151130.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:17:16
    2015-11-22 20151122-LANL_DBMplus-20151207.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:17:17
    2015-11-29 20151129-LANL_DBMplus-20151214.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:17:19
    2015-12-06 20151206-LANL_DBMplus-20151221.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:17:20
    2015-12-13 20151213-LANL_DBMplus-20151228.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:17:21
    2015-12-20 20151220-LANL_DBMplus-20160104.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:17:22
    2015-12-27 20151227-LANL_DBMplus-20160111.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:17:23
    2016-01-03 20160103-LANL_DBMplus-20160118.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:17:24
    2016-01-10 20160110-LANL_DBMplus-20160125.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:17:25
    2016-01-17 20160117-LANL_DBMplus-20160201.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:17:26
    2016-01-24 20160124-LANL_DBMplus-20160208.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:17:27
    2016-01-31 20160131-LANL_DBMplus-20160215.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:17:28
    2016-02-07 20160207-LANL_DBMplus-20160222.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:17:29
    2016-02-14 20160214-LANL_DBMplus-20160229.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:17:30
    2016-02-21 20160221-LANL_DBMplus-20160307.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:17:31
    2016-02-28 20160228-LANL_DBMplus-20160314.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:17:32
    2016-03-06 20160306-LANL_DBMplus-20160321.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:17:33
    2016-03-13 20160313-LANL_DBMplus-20160328.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:17:34
    2016-03-20 20160320-LANL_DBMplus-20160404.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:17:35
    2016-03-27 20160327-LANL_DBMplus-20160411.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:17:36
    2016-04-03 20160403-LANL_DBMplus-20160418.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:17:38
    2016-04-10 20160410-LANL_DBMplus-20160425.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:17:39
    2016-04-17 20160417-LANL_DBMplus-20160502.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:17:40
    2016-04-24 20160424-LANL_DBMplus-20160509.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:17:41
    2016-05-01 20160501-LANL_DBMplus-20160516.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:17:42
    2016-10-23 20161023-LANL_DBMplus-20161107.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:17:43
    2016-10-30 20161030-LANL_DBMplus-20161114.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:17:44
    2016-11-06 20161106-LANL_DBMplus-20161121.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:17:45
    2016-11-13 20161113-LANL_DBMplus-20161128.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:17:46
    2016-11-20 20161120-LANL_DBMplus-20161205.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:17:47
    2016-11-27 20161127-LANL_DBMplus-20161212.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:17:48
    2016-12-04 20161204-LANL_DBMplus-20161219.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:17:49
    2016-12-11 20161211-LANL_DBMplus-20161226.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:17:50
    2016-12-18 20161218-LANL_DBMplus-20170102.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:17:51
    2016-12-25 20161225-LANL_DBMplus-20170109.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:17:52
    2017-01-01 20170101-LANL_DBMplus-20170116.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:17:53
    2017-01-08 20170108-LANL_DBMplus-20170123.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:17:54
    2017-01-15 20170115-LANL_DBMplus-20170130.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:17:55
    2017-01-22 20170122-LANL_DBMplus-20170206.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:17:56
    2017-01-29 20170129-LANL_DBMplus-20170213.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:17:57
    2017-02-05 20170205-LANL_DBMplus-20170220.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:17:58
    2017-02-12 20170212-LANL_DBMplus-20170227.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:17:59
    2017-02-19 20170219-LANL_DBMplus-20170306.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:18:00
    2017-02-26 20170226-LANL_DBMplus-20170313.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:18:01
    2017-03-05 20170305-LANL_DBMplus-20170320.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:18:02
    2017-03-12 20170312-LANL_DBMplus-20170327.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:18:03
    2017-03-19 20170319-LANL_DBMplus-20170403.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:18:05
    2017-03-26 20170326-LANL_DBMplus-20170410.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:18:06
    2017-04-02 20170402-LANL_DBMplus-20170417.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:18:07
    2017-04-09 20170409-LANL_DBMplus-20170424.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:18:08
    2017-04-16 20170416-LANL_DBMplus-20170501.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:18:09
    2017-04-23 20170423-LANL_DBMplus-20170508.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:18:10
    2017-04-30 20170430-LANL_DBMplus-20170515.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:18:11
    2017-10-22 20171022-LANL_DBMplus-20171106.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:18:12
    2017-10-29 20171029-LANL_DBMplus-20171113.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:18:13
    2017-11-05 20171105-LANL_DBMplus-20171120.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:18:14
    2017-11-12 20171112-LANL_DBMplus-20171127.cdc.csv 2019-03-05 12:18:15
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